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Depor FC vs Real Soacha — Primera B 2018

Depor FC
Depor FC
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Real Soacha
Real Soacha
8/19/2025Primera BPrimera B · Clausura - 6Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Depor FC32%
×Draw29%
Real Soacha38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Depor FC
1.02
Real Soacha
1.14

Real Soacha creates 12% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 56 away

creates per match

Depor FC
0.85
Real Soacha
1.00

allows per match

Depor FC
1.27
Real Soacha
1.20

finishing

Depor FC+0.00on par
Real Soacha+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Depor FC ↓

Real Soacha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Depor FC or draw
62%
Depor FC or Real Soacha
71%
Draw or Real Soacha
68%

Winning margin

Depor FC wins by 2+
12%
Real Soacha wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Depor FC 1+ goals
64%
Depor FC 2+ goals
27%
Depor FC 3+ goals
8%
Real Soacha 1+ goals
68%
Real Soacha 2+ goals
32%
Real Soacha 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Depor FC (draw refunded)
46%
Real Soacha (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Depor FC at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.27 · 129 matches

Real Soacha away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Depor FC attack 0.85 + Real Soacha defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.02

Real Soacha attack 1.00 + Depor FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Depor FC scores more
32%
level
29%
Real Soacha scores more
38%

Real Soacha at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Real Soacha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Depor FC vs Real Soacha

Real Soacha beat Depor FC 3-2 in Primera B on August 19, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero in Cali.