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Denver vs Tambankulu Callies — Premier League 2020

Denver
Denver
FT
3 – 1
Tambankulu Callies
Tambankulu Callies
6/5/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Mavuso Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Denver41%
×Draw29%
Tambankulu Callies30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Denver
1.23
Tambankulu Callies
1.00

Denver creates 23% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 42 away

creates per match

Denver
0.95
Tambankulu Callies
0.74

allows per match

Denver
1.27
Tambankulu Callies
1.52

finishing

Denver+0.00on par
Tambankulu Callies+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denver ↓

Tambankulu Callies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Denver or draw
70%
Denver or Tambankulu Callies
71%
Draw or Tambankulu Callies
59%

Winning margin

Denver wins by 2+
18%
Tambankulu Callies wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Denver 1+ goals
71%
Denver 2+ goals
35%
Denver 3+ goals
13%
Tambankulu Callies 1+ goals
63%
Tambankulu Callies 2+ goals
26%
Tambankulu Callies 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Denver (draw refunded)
58%
Tambankulu Callies (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denver at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.27 · 41 matches

Tambankulu Callies away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.52 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denver attack 0.95 + Tambankulu Callies defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.23

Tambankulu Callies attack 0.74 + Denver defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Denver scores more
41%
level
29%
Tambankulu Callies scores more
30%

Denver at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Denver will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Denver 3–1 Tambankulu Callies

Denver beat Tambankulu Callies 3-1 in Premier League on June 5, 2022.

The match was played at Mavuso Sports Centre in Manzini.