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Denver vs Moneni Pirates — Premier League 2020

Denver
Denver
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Moneni Pirates
Moneni Pirates
2/4/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Tambankulu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Denver36%
×Draw28%
Moneni Pirates36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Denver
1.15
Moneni Pirates
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 83 away

creates per match

Denver
0.95
Moneni Pirates
1.04

allows per match

Denver
1.27
Moneni Pirates
1.35

finishing

Denver+0.00on par
Moneni Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denver ↓

Moneni Pirates →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Denver or draw
64%
Denver or Moneni Pirates
72%
Draw or Moneni Pirates
64%

Winning margin

Denver wins by 2+
15%
Moneni Pirates wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Denver 1+ goals
68%
Denver 2+ goals
32%
Denver 3+ goals
11%
Moneni Pirates 1+ goals
69%
Moneni Pirates 2+ goals
32%
Moneni Pirates 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Denver (draw refunded)
50%
Moneni Pirates (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denver at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.27 · 41 matches

Moneni Pirates away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.35 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denver attack 0.95 + Moneni Pirates defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.15

Moneni Pirates attack 1.04 + Denver defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Denver scores more
36%
level
28%
Moneni Pirates scores more
36%

Denver at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Denver will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Denver vs Moneni Pirates

Denver and Moneni Pirates drew 1-1 in Premier League on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Tambankulu Stadium in Tambankulu.