Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Denver vs Mhlume Peacemakers — Premier League 2020

Denver
Denver
FT
5 – 0
Mhlume Peacemakers
Mhlume Peacemakers
12/17/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Mavuso Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Denver63%
×Draw21%
Mhlume Peacemakers16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Denver
2.05
Mhlume Peacemakers
0.92

Denver creates 123% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

creates per match

Denver
1.50
Mhlume Peacemakers
0.53

allows per match

Denver
1.31
Mhlume Peacemakers
2.60

finishing

Denver+0.00on par
Mhlume Peacemakers+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denver ↓

Mhlume Peacemakers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Denver or draw
84%
Denver or Mhlume Peacemakers
79%
Draw or Mhlume Peacemakers
37%

Winning margin

Denver wins by 2+
39%
Mhlume Peacemakers wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Denver 1+ goals
87%
Denver 2+ goals
61%
Denver 3+ goals
33%
Mhlume Peacemakers 1+ goals
60%
Mhlume Peacemakers 2+ goals
23%
Mhlume Peacemakers 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Denver (draw refunded)
80%
Mhlume Peacemakers (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denver at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Mhlume Peacemakers away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denver attack 1.50 + Mhlume Peacemakers defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.05

Mhlume Peacemakers attack 0.53 + Denver defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Denver scores more
63%
level
21%
Mhlume Peacemakers scores more
16%

Denver at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Denver will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Denver 5–0 Mhlume Peacemakers

Denver beat Mhlume Peacemakers 5-0 in Premier League on December 17, 2020.

The match was played at Mavuso Sports Centre in Manzini.