Denver 0–2 Mbabane Swallows: Result & Stats

Denver

FT

0 – 2

Mbabane Swallows

5/5/2021

Premier League · Round 9Mavuso Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Denver32%

×Draw27%

Mbabane Swallows41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DenverExpected goals in this matchMbabane Swallows

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.34

Denver

1.16

Mbabane Swallows

1.34

Mbabane Swallows creates 16% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 83 away

1.50

creates per match

1.37

1.31

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Denver

1.50

Mbabane Swallows

1.37

allows per match

Denver

1.31

Mbabane Swallows

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Denver+0.00on par

Mbabane Swallows+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denver ↓

Mbabane Swallows →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Denver or draw

59%

Denver or Mbabane Swallows

73%

Draw or Mbabane Swallows

68%

Winning margin

Denver wins by 2+

13%

Mbabane Swallows wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Denver 1+ goals

69%

Denver 2+ goals

32%

Denver 3+ goals

11%

Mbabane Swallows 1+ goals

74%

Mbabane Swallows 2+ goals

39%

Mbabane Swallows 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Denver (draw refunded)

44%

Mbabane Swallows (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denver at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Mbabane Swallows away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.81 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denver attack 1.50 + Mbabane Swallows defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.16

Mbabane Swallows attack 1.37 + Denver defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Denver scores more

32%

level

27%

Mbabane Swallows scores more

41%

Mbabane Swallows at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mbabane Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff