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Denver vs Green Mamba — Premier League 2020

Denver
Denver
FT
0 – 1
Green Mamba
Green Mamba
4/21/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Mavuso Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Denver32%
×Draw26%
Green Mamba42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Denver
1.18
Green Mamba
1.40

Green Mamba creates 19% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 84 away

creates per match

Denver
1.50
Green Mamba
1.49

allows per match

Denver
1.31
Green Mamba
0.86

finishing

Denver+0.00on par
Green Mamba+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denver ↓

Green Mamba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Denver or draw
58%
Denver or Green Mamba
74%
Draw or Green Mamba
68%

Winning margin

Denver wins by 2+
13%
Green Mamba wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Denver 1+ goals
69%
Denver 2+ goals
33%
Denver 3+ goals
12%
Green Mamba 1+ goals
75%
Green Mamba 2+ goals
41%
Green Mamba 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Denver (draw refunded)
43%
Green Mamba (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denver at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Green Mamba away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.86 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denver attack 1.50 + Green Mamba defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.18

Green Mamba attack 1.49 + Denver defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Denver scores more
32%
level
26%
Green Mamba scores more
42%

Green Mamba at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Green Mamba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Denver 0–1 Green Mamba

Green Mamba beat Denver 1-0 in Premier League on April 21, 2021.

The match was played at Mavuso Sports Centre in Manzini.