Denver 3–2 Black Swallows: Result & Stats

Denver

FT

3 – 2

Black Swallows

7/24/2021

Premier League · Round 20Mavuso Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Denver54%

×Draw24%

Black Swallows22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DenverExpected goals in this matchBlack Swallows

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.02

Denver

1.75

Black Swallows

1.02

Denver creates 72% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

1.50

creates per match

0.73

1.31

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Denver

1.50

Black Swallows

0.73

allows per match

Denver

1.31

Black Swallows

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Denver+0.00on par

Black Swallows+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denver ↓

Black Swallows →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Denver or draw

78%

Denver or Black Swallows

76%

Draw or Black Swallows

46%

Winning margin

Denver wins by 2+

30%

Black Swallows wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Denver 1+ goals

83%

Denver 2+ goals

52%

Denver 3+ goals

25%

Black Swallows 1+ goals

64%

Black Swallows 2+ goals

27%

Black Swallows 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Denver (draw refunded)

71%

Black Swallows (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denver at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Black Swallows away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denver attack 1.50 + Black Swallows defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Black Swallows attack 0.73 + Denver defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Denver scores more

54%

level

24%

Black Swallows scores more

22%

Denver at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Denver will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff