Denver Summit W vs San Diego Wave W — NWSL Women 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 6+ matches
Denver Summit W33%
San Diego Wave W42%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
San Diego Wave W creates 15% more chances
Season form · 6 home / 57 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Denver Summit W ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Denver Summit W at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches
San Diego Wave W away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Denver Summit W attack 1.50 + San Diego Wave W defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.29
San Diego Wave W attack 1.28 + Denver Summit W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
San Diego Wave W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "San Diego Wave W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Angel City W
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
Bay FC W
Boston Legacy W
Washington Spirit W
Kansas City WSan Diego Wave WDenver Summit W
Portland Thorns W
Seattle Reign FC W
Orlando Pride W
Utah Royals W
Chicago Red Stars W
North Carolina Courage W
Houston Dash W
Racing Louisville WIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Denver Summit W host San Diego Wave W on Sunday, 26 April 2026 at 00:45. The match is part of the NWSL Women 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Denver Summit W vs San Diego Wave W
San Diego Wave W beat Denver Summit W 3-2 in NWSL Women on April 26, 2026.
The match was played at Centennial Stadium in Commerce City.