Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rosenborg vs Sogndal — Eliteserien 2026

Rosenborg
Rosenborg
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Sogndal
Sogndal
J. Svensson 40'
M. Bakenga 37'
F. Midtsjø 15'
J. Svensson 75' (OG)
8/14/2016EliteserienEliteserien · Round 20Lerkendal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Rosenborg61%
×Draw20%
Sogndal19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosenborg
2.21
Sogndal
1.16

Rosenborg creates 91% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 7 away

creates per match

Rosenborg
1.99
Sogndal
1.29

allows per match

Rosenborg
1.02
Sogndal
2.43

finishing

Rosenborg+0.00on par
Sogndal+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg ↓

Sogndal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Rosenborg or draw
81%
Rosenborg or Sogndal
80%
Draw or Sogndal
39%

Winning margin

Rosenborg wins by 2+
38%
Sogndal wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rosenborg 1+ goals
89%
Rosenborg 2+ goals
65%
Rosenborg 3+ goals
38%
Sogndal 1+ goals
69%
Sogndal 2+ goals
32%
Sogndal 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg (draw refunded)
76%
Sogndal (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.02 · 113 matches

Sogndal away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg attack 1.99 + Sogndal defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.21

Sogndal attack 1.29 + Rosenborg defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Rosenborg scores more
61%
level
20%
Sogndal scores more
19%

Rosenborg at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Rosenborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
J. SvenssonRosenborgRosenborg · D
8.2

Match Events

15'
F. Midtsjø
34'
Hannu Patronen
37'
M. Bakenga↳ G. Thórarinsson
40'
J. Svensson
46'
P. Helland← M. Bakenga
53'
Fredrik Midtsjø
61'
M. Stamnestrø← F. Midtsjø
61'
B. Utvik← H. Patronen
71'
K. Opseth← L. Kjemhus
72'
A. Konradsen← C. Gytkjær
75'
J. SvenssonOwn goal
85'
M. Otoo← M. Ramsland

Possession

65%Rosenborg

Shots

20Rosenborg

Pass accuracy

54%Rosenborg

Statistics

RosenborgSogndal
Overview
65%Possession35%
20Total Shots9
6Corners5
8Fouls13
Shots
20Total Shots9
6On Target3
8Off Target2
6Blocked4
12Inside Box5
8Outside Box5
Passing
65%Possession35%
549Total Passes290
456Accurate Passes202
83%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls13
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
1Offsides4

Eliteserien: Rosenborg 3–1 Sogndal

Rosenborg beat Sogndal 3-1 in Eliteserien on August 14, 2016.

Goals: F. Midtsjø (15'), M. Bakenga (37'), J. Svensson (40', 75' o.g.).

Rosenborg controlled possession (65%) and registered 20 shots to 9.

The match was played at Lerkendal in Trondheim.