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Al Sadd vs Al-Sailiya — League #305 2026

Al Sadd
Al Sadd
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al-Sailiya
Al-Sailiya
Akram Afif 54', 48' (pen), 3'
2/1/2020League #305League #305 · Round 14Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Al Sadd62%
×Draw20%
Al-Sailiya17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Sadd
2.09
Al-Sailiya
0.99

Al Sadd creates 111% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Al Sadd
3.36
Al-Sailiya
1.17

allows per match

Al Sadd
0.82
Al-Sailiya
0.83

finishing

Al Sadd+0.00on par
Al-Sailiya+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Sadd ↓

Al-Sailiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Al Sadd or draw
83%
Al Sadd or Al-Sailiya
80%
Draw or Al-Sailiya
38%

Winning margin

Al Sadd wins by 2+
39%
Al-Sailiya wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Al Sadd 1+ goals
88%
Al Sadd 2+ goals
62%
Al Sadd 3+ goals
34%
Al-Sailiya 1+ goals
63%
Al-Sailiya 2+ goals
26%
Al-Sailiya 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Sadd (draw refunded)
79%
Al-Sailiya (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Sadd at home — creates 3.36, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Al-Sailiya away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Sadd attack 3.36 + Al-Sailiya defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 2.09

Al-Sailiya attack 1.17 + Al Sadd defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Al Sadd scores more
62%
level
20%
Al-Sailiya scores more
17%

Al Sadd at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Al Sadd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
Akram Afif
48'
Akram AfifPenalty
54'
Akram Afif
59'
Ahmed Al Sebaai← Mahir Yousef
63'
George Kwasi← Adel Bader Al Ahmad
64'
K. Ansarifard
71'
Abdulaziz Al Ansari← Ali Assadalla
84'
Yasser Aboubaker Essa← Akram Afif
87'
B. Khoukhi
87'
Husam Hassunin El Said← Pedro Miguel Correia
89'
M. Abu Zrayq

Al Sadd 3 – 0 Al-Sailiya

Al Sadd beat Al-Sailiya 3-0 in League #305 on February 1, 2020.

Goals: Akram Afif (3', 48' pen, 54').

The match was played at Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium in Doha.