Denmark W 1–1 Austria W: Result & Stats

Denmark W

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Austria W

2/28/2024

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 1Marbella Football Center - Sur 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Denmark W37%

×Draw24%

Austria W40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Denmark WExpected goals in this matchAustria W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.59

Denmark W

1.52

Austria W

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.55

creates per match

2.00

1.18

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Denmark W

1.55

Austria W

2.00

allows per match

Denmark W

1.18

Austria W

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Denmark W+0.00on par

Austria W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denmark W ↓

Austria W →

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Denmark W or draw

60%

Denmark W or Austria W

76%

Draw or Austria W

63%

Winning margin

Denmark W wins by 2+

18%

Austria W wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Denmark W 1+ goals

78%

Denmark W 2+ goals

45%

Denmark W 3+ goals

20%

Austria W 1+ goals

80%

Austria W 2+ goals

47%

Austria W 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Denmark W (draw refunded)

48%

Austria W (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Denmark W at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Austria W away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Denmark W attack 1.55 + Austria W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Austria W attack 2.00 + Denmark W defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Denmark W scores more

37%

level

24%

Austria W scores more

40%

Austria W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Austria W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Denmark W 1–1 Austria W

Denmark W and Austria W drew 1-1 in Friendlies Women on February 28, 2024.

The match was played at Marbella Football Center - Sur 1 in San Pedro de Alcántara.

Denmark W vs Austria W — Friendlies Women 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Friendlies Women: Denmark W 1–1 Austria W