Denmark 2–1 Ukraine: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Denmark

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Ukraine

J. Maehle 36'

P. Dorgu 13'

V. Tsygankov 44'

6/7/2026

Friendlies · Friendly InternationalOdense Isstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Denmark63%

×Draw21%

Ukraine16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DenmarkExpected goals in this matchUkraine

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.87

Denmark

1.96

Ukraine

0.87

Denmark creates 125% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 17 away

2.33

creates per match

1.47

0.27

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Denmark

2.33

Ukraine

1.47

allows per match

Denmark

0.27

Ukraine

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Denmark+0.00on par

Ukraine+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denmark ↓

Ukraine →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Denmark or draw

84%

Denmark or Ukraine

79%

Draw or Ukraine

37%

Winning margin

Denmark wins by 2+

38%

Ukraine wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Denmark 1+ goals

86%

Denmark 2+ goals

58%

Denmark 3+ goals

31%

Ukraine 1+ goals

58%

Ukraine 2+ goals

22%

Ukraine 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Denmark (draw refunded)

80%

Ukraine (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denmark at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.27 · 15 matches

Ukraine away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denmark attack 2.33 + Ukraine defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.96

Ukraine attack 1.47 + Denmark defence 0.27 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Denmark scores more

63%

level

21%

Ukraine scores more

16%

Denmark at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Denmark will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

P. Dorgu

Denmark · F

8.2

Match Events

13'

P. Dorgu↳ A. Bah

31'

C. Eriksen

36'

J. Maehle

44'

V. Tsygankov

46'

L. Hogsberg← A. Christensen

46'

A. Dovbyk← R. Yaremchuk

50'

V. Mykolenko

56'

I. Zabarnyi

61'

R. Hojlund← K. Hogh

61'

R. Kristensen← A. Bah

61'

A. Daghim← P. Dorgu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DenmarkUkraine

Overview

54%Possession46%

10Total Shots3

1Corners2

9Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots3

6On Target2

3Off Target0

1Blocked1

6Inside Box1

4Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

314Total Passes274

267Accurate Passes229

85%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1