Denmark 2–1 Sweden: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Denmark

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sweden

C. Eriksen 86'

P. Højbjerg 2'

A. Isak 9'

6/5/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Parken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Denmark70%

×Draw19%

Sweden10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DenmarkExpected goals in this matchSweden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.64

Denmark

2.06

Sweden

0.64

Denmark creates 222% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

2.33

creates per match

1.00

0.27

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Denmark

2.33

Sweden

1.00

allows per match

Denmark

0.27

Sweden

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Denmark+0.00on par

Sweden+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denmark ↓

Sweden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Denmark or draw

90%

Denmark or Sweden

81%

Draw or Sweden

30%

Winning margin

Denmark wins by 2+

45%

Sweden wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Denmark 1+ goals

87%

Denmark 2+ goals

61%

Denmark 3+ goals

34%

Sweden 1+ goals

47%

Sweden 2+ goals

14%

Sweden 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Denmark (draw refunded)

87%

Sweden (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denmark at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.27 · 15 matches

Sweden away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denmark attack 2.33 + Sweden defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.06

Sweden attack 1.00 + Denmark defence 0.27 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Denmark scores more

70%

level

19%

Sweden scores more

10%

Denmark at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Denmark will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

C. Eriksen

Denmark · F

10.0

Match Events

2'

P. Højbjerg↳ C. Eriksen

9'

A. Isak

38'

Alexander Isak

46'

M. Jørgensen← J. Andersen

46'

H. Ekdal← V. Lindelöf

46'

H. Larsson← S. Olsson

54'

C. Starfelt← H. Ekdal

61'

M. Hjulmand← C. Nørgaard

61'

V. Kristiansen← A. Bah

61'

T. Delaney← P. Højbjerg

70'

G. Nilsson← A. Isak

79'

Y. Poulsen← R. Højlund

86'

K. Dolberg← J. Wind

86'

E. Holm← N. Eliasson

86'

C. Eriksen↳ M. Hjulmand

90+2'

Jens Cajuste

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DenmarkSweden

Overview

50%Possession50%

20Total Shots10

12Corners6

6Fouls16

Shots

20Total Shots10

9On Target2

6Off Target2

5Blocked6

15Inside Box8

5Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

508Total Passes509

431Accurate Passes448

85%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

6Fouls16

0Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Denmark vs Sweden

Denmark beat Sweden 2-1 in Friendlies on June 5, 2024.

Goals: P. Højbjerg (2'), A. Isak (9'), C. Eriksen (86').

Denmark controlled possession (50%) and registered 20 shots to 10.

The match was played at Parken in København.

Denmark vs Sweden — Friendlies 2023

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Denmark vs Sweden