Denmark 3–0 Serbia: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Denmark

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Serbia

C. Eriksen 57'

J. Lindstrøm 53'

J. Mæhle 15'

3/29/2022

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Parken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Denmark64%

×Draw22%

Serbia15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DenmarkExpected goals in this matchSerbia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

0.76

Denmark

1.87

Serbia

0.76

Denmark creates 146% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 17 away

2.33

creates per match

1.24

0.27

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Denmark

2.33

Serbia

1.24

allows per match

Denmark

0.27

Serbia

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Denmark+0.00on par

Serbia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denmark ↓

Serbia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Denmark or draw

85%

Denmark or Serbia

78%

Draw or Serbia

36%

Winning margin

Denmark wins by 2+

38%

Serbia wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Denmark 1+ goals

85%

Denmark 2+ goals

56%

Denmark 3+ goals

29%

Serbia 1+ goals

53%

Serbia 2+ goals

18%

Serbia 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Denmark (draw refunded)

81%

Serbia (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denmark at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.27 · 15 matches

Serbia away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denmark attack 2.33 + Serbia defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.87

Serbia attack 1.24 + Denmark defence 0.27 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Denmark scores more

64%

level

22%

Serbia scores more

15%

Denmark at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Denmark will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

J. Mæhle

46'

M. Nastasić← M. Veljković

46'

L. Jović← S. Lukić

46'

N. Radonjić← A. Živković

53'

J. Lindstrøm↳ P. Højbjerg

56'

A. Cornelius← K. Dolberg

57'

J. Bruun Larsen← J. Lindstrøm

57'

C. Eriksen↳ C. Nørgaard

62'

M. Grujić← A. Mitrović

67'

M. Jensen← P. Højbjerg

67'

V. Nelsson← J. Andersen

73'

S. Mitrović← S. Pavlović

79'

U. Račić← L. Jović

80'

A. Maxsø← A. Skov Olsen

80'

P. Billing← C. Eriksen

Possession

Shots

Statistics

DenmarkSerbia

Overview

48%Possession52%

7Total Shots8

5Corners9

7Fouls12

Shots

7Total Shots8

3On Target1

4Off Target7

Passing

48%Possession52%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

7Fouls12

0Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2