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Denmark vs Northern Ireland — Friendlies 2026

Denmark
Denmark
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland
Christian Eriksen 67'
Gustav Isaksen 45+2'
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 6' (OG)
6/7/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Parken Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Denmark67%
×Draw20%
Northern Ireland12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Denmark
1.97
Northern Ireland
0.70

Denmark creates 181% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Denmark
2.33
Northern Ireland
1.13

allows per match

Denmark
0.27
Northern Ireland
1.60

finishing

Denmark+0.00on par
Northern Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denmark ↓

Northern Ireland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Denmark or draw
88%
Denmark or Northern Ireland
80%
Draw or Northern Ireland
33%

Winning margin

Denmark wins by 2+
42%
Northern Ireland wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Denmark 1+ goals
86%
Denmark 2+ goals
58%
Denmark 3+ goals
31%
Northern Ireland 1+ goals
50%
Northern Ireland 2+ goals
16%
Northern Ireland 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Denmark (draw refunded)
84%
Northern Ireland (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denmark at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.27 · 15 matches

Northern Ireland away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denmark attack 2.33 + Northern Ireland defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.97

Northern Ireland attack 1.13 + Denmark defence 0.27 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Denmark scores more
67%
level
20%
Northern Ireland scores more
12%

Denmark at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Denmark will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
Gustav IsaksenDenmarkDenmark · M
8.6

Match Events

6'
Pierre-Emile HøjbjergOwn goal
45+2'
Gustav Isaksen↳ Mikkel Damsgaard
46'
Pierce Charles← Conor Hazard
48'
Trai Hume
61'
George Saville← Alistair McCann
61'
Jamie Donley← Ethan Galbraith
65'
Jannik Vestergaard← Joachim Andersen
65'
Mathias Kvistgaarden← Mikkel Damsgaard
66'
Mika Biereth← Rasmus Højlund
67'
Christian Eriksen
72'
Paul Smyth← Dion Charles
73'
Brodie Spencer← Conor Bradley
80'
Morten Hjulmand← Christian Nørgaard
80'
Matt O'Riley← Christian Eriksen
83'
Callum Marshall← Justin Devenny
89'
Anders Dreyer← Gustav Isaksen

Possession

73%Denmark

Shots

17Denmark

Pass accuracy

57%Denmark

Statistics

DenmarkNorthern
Overview
73%Possession27%
17Total Shots2
12Corners0
10Fouls9
Shots
17Total Shots2
7On Target0
2Off Target2
8Blocked0
11Inside Box1
6Outside Box1
Passing
73%Possession27%
649Total Passes243
568Accurate Passes160
88%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls9
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Denmark vs Northern Ireland

Denmark beat Northern Ireland 2-1 in Friendlies on June 7, 2025.

Goals: Pierre-Emile Højbjerg (6' o.g.), Gustav Isaksen (45+2'), Christian Eriksen (67').

Denmark controlled possession (73%) and registered 17 shots to 2.

The match was played at Parken Stadium in Copenhagen.