Denmark 5–0 Lithuania: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Denmark

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Lithuania

Anders Dreyer 62'

Rasmus Kristensen 48'

Kasper Dolberg 23'

Christian Eriksen 18'

Mika Biereth 12'

6/10/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Nature Energy Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Denmark77%

×Draw17%

Lithuania7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DenmarkExpected goals in this matchLithuania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.45

Denmark

2.13

Lithuania

0.45

Denmark creates 373% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 13 away

2.33

creates per match

0.62

0.27

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Denmark

2.33

Lithuania

0.62

allows per match

Denmark

0.27

Lithuania

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Denmark+0.00on par

Lithuania+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denmark ↓

Lithuania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–17%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Denmark or draw

93%

Denmark or Lithuania

83%

Draw or Lithuania

23%

Winning margin

Denmark wins by 2+

51%

Lithuania wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Denmark 1+ goals

88%

Denmark 2+ goals

63%

Denmark 3+ goals

35%

Lithuania 1+ goals

36%

Lithuania 2+ goals

8%

Lithuania 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Denmark (draw refunded)

92%

Lithuania (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denmark at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.27 · 15 matches

Lithuania away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denmark attack 2.33 + Lithuania defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.13

Lithuania attack 0.62 + Denmark defence 0.27 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Denmark scores more

77%

level

17%

Lithuania scores more

7%

Denmark at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Denmark will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

Pierre-Emile Højbjerg

Denmark · M

8.7

Match Events

12'

Mika Biereth↳ Pierre-Emile Højbjerg

18'

Christian Eriksen

23'

Kasper Dolberg↳ Kasper Schmeichel

32'

Edgaras Utkus

36'

Edvinas Girdvainis← Titas Milašius

46'

Lucas Høgsberg← Joachim Andersen

48'

Rasmus Kristensen↳ Anders Dreyer

60'

Anton Gaaei← Rasmus Kristensen

60'

Victor Froholdt← Pierre-Emile Højbjerg

62'

Anders Dreyer↳ Christian Eriksen

65'

Rokas Lekiatas← Artemijus Tutyškinas

65'

Justas Lasickas← Artur Dolznikov

66'

Manfredas Ruzgis← Gytis Paulauskas

68'

Gvidas Gineitis

72'

Rasmus Højlund← Mika Biereth

72'

Matt O'Riley← Morten Hjulmand

78'

Carlo Holse← Anders Dreyer

78'

Deividas Šešplaukis← Klaudijus Upstas

87'

Domantas Antanavičius← Vykintas Slivka

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DenmarkLithuania

Overview

75%Possession25%

30Total Shots7

10Corners1

7Fouls11

Shots

30Total Shots7

10On Target1

8Off Target4

12Blocked2

18Inside Box2

12Outside Box5

Passing

75%Possession25%

703Total Passes237

626Accurate Passes161

89%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

0Offsides2

Friendlies: Denmark 5–0 Lithuania

Denmark beat Lithuania 5-0 in Friendlies on June 10, 2025.

Goals: Mika Biereth (12'), Christian Eriksen (18'), Kasper Dolberg (23'), Rasmus Kristensen (48'), Anders Dreyer (62').

Denmark controlled possession (75%) and registered 30 shots to 7.

The match was played at Nature Energy Park in Odense.

Denmark vs Lithuania — Friendlies 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Friendlies: Denmark 5–0 Lithuania