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Denmark vs Faroe Islands — Friendlies 2026

Denmark
Denmark
CANC
00:00
Faroe Islands
Faroe Islands
3/27/2020FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1MCH Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Denmark71%
×Draw20%
Faroe Islands9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Denmark
1.94
Faroe Islands
0.54

Denmark creates 259% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

creates per match

Denmark
2.33
Faroe Islands
0.82

allows per match

Denmark
0.27
Faroe Islands
1.55

finishing

Denmark+0.00on par
Faroe Islands+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denmark ↓

Faroe Islands →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Denmark or draw
91%
Denmark or Faroe Islands
80%
Draw or Faroe Islands
29%

Winning margin

Denmark wins by 2+
44%
Faroe Islands wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Denmark 1+ goals
86%
Denmark 2+ goals
58%
Denmark 3+ goals
30%
Faroe Islands 1+ goals
42%
Faroe Islands 2+ goals
10%
Faroe Islands 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Denmark (draw refunded)
88%
Faroe Islands (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denmark at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.27 · 15 matches

Faroe Islands away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denmark attack 2.33 + Faroe Islands defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.94

Faroe Islands attack 0.82 + Denmark defence 0.27 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Denmark scores more
71%
level
20%
Faroe Islands scores more
9%

Denmark at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Denmark will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Denmark face Faroe Islands (Friendlies)

Friendlies returns with Denmark hosting Faroe Islands. Match starts March 27, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Denmark host Faroe Islands at MCH Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.