Denmark 0–2 Belgium: Result & Stats

Denmark

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Belgium

Dries Mertens 76'

Jason Denayer 9'

9/5/2020

UEFA Nations League · League A - 1Parken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Denmark49%

×Draw27%

Belgium24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DenmarkExpected goals in this matchBelgium

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.89

Denmark

1.41

Belgium

0.89

Denmark creates 58% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

1.27

creates per match

1.23

0.55

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Denmark

1.27

Belgium

1.23

allows per match

Denmark

0.55

Belgium

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Denmark+0.00on par

Belgium+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denmark ↓

Belgium →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Denmark or draw

76%

Denmark or Belgium

73%

Draw or Belgium

51%

Winning margin

Denmark wins by 2+

24%

Belgium wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Denmark 1+ goals

76%

Denmark 2+ goals

41%

Denmark 3+ goals

17%

Belgium 1+ goals

59%

Belgium 2+ goals

22%

Belgium 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Denmark (draw refunded)

67%

Belgium (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denmark at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

Belgium away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denmark attack 1.27 + Belgium defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.41

Belgium attack 1.23 + Denmark defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Denmark scores more

49%

level

27%

Belgium scores more

24%

Denmark at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Denmark will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

Dries Mertens

Belgium · F

8.2

Match Events

3'

Pierre-Emile Højbjerg

9'

Jason Denayer↳ Dries Mertens

20'

Youri Tielemans

26'

Robert Skov

57'

Dennis Praet← Yannick Carrasco

72'

Joakim Maehle← Martin Braithwaite

76'

Dries Mertens

80'

Leandro Trossard← Dries Mertens

83'

Zanka← Daniel Wass

83'

Andreas Cornelius← Kasper Dolberg

88'

Jeremy Doku← Youri Tielemans

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DenmarkBelgium

Overview

50%Possession50%

8Total Shots11

7Corners4

13Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots11

1On Target5

4Off Target4

3Blocked2

3Inside Box8

5Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

518Total Passes514

437Accurate Passes432

84%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2