Denmark 2–0 Austria: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Denmark

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Austria

M. Braithwaite 90+3'

L. Lerager 29'

10/16/2018

Friendlies · Friendlies 1MCH Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Denmark49%

×Draw27%

Austria24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DenmarkExpected goals in this matchAustria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.92

Denmark

1.45

Austria

0.92

Denmark creates 58% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

2.33

creates per match

1.57

0.27

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Denmark

2.33

Austria

1.57

allows per match

Denmark

0.27

Austria

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Denmark+0.00on par

Austria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denmark ↓

Austria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Denmark or draw

76%

Denmark or Austria

73%

Draw or Austria

51%

Winning margin

Denmark wins by 2+

25%

Austria wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Denmark 1+ goals

77%

Denmark 2+ goals

42%

Denmark 3+ goals

18%

Austria 1+ goals

60%

Austria 2+ goals

23%

Austria 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Denmark (draw refunded)

67%

Austria (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denmark at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.27 · 15 matches

Austria away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denmark attack 2.33 + Austria defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

Austria attack 1.57 + Denmark defence 0.27 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Denmark scores more

49%

level

27%

Austria scores more

24%

Denmark at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Denmark will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

Martin Hinteregger

29'

L. Lerager↳ P. Sisto

37'

S. Ilsanker← X. Schlager

46'

C. Gytkjær← K. Dolberg

46'

M. Braithwaite← Y. Poulsen

46'

K. Wimmer← M. Hinteregger

46'

F. Kainz← M. Sabitzer

53'

Kevin Wimmer

61'

M. Jørgensen← S. Kjær

63'

M. Jensen← Andreas Christensen

71'

M. Janko← S. Prödl

71'

S. Hierländer← A. Schöpf

78'

G. Trauner← L. Schaub

90'

J. Larsen← J. Knudsen

90+3'

M. Braithwaite

Possession

Shots

Statistics

DenmarkAustria

Overview

55%Possession45%

13Total Shots6

1Corners6

9Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots6

8On Target1

5Off Target5

Passing

55%Possession45%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls10

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

0Offsides2