Denmark U23 W 3–1 Scotland U23 W: Result & Stats

Denmark U23 W

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Scotland U23 W

C. Floe 73', 15'

L. Borbye 2'

K. McGovern 56'

4/3/2025

Friendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Denmark U23 W58%

×Draw22%

Scotland U23 W20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Denmark U23 WExpected goals in this matchScotland U23 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.00

Denmark U23 W

1.88

Scotland U23 W

1.00

Denmark U23 W creates 88% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Denmark U23 W

2.00

Scotland U23 W

1.00

allows per match

Denmark U23 W

1.00

Scotland U23 W

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Denmark U23 W+0.00on par

Scotland U23 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denmark U23 W ↓

Scotland U23 W →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Denmark U23 W or draw

80%

Denmark U23 W or Scotland U23 W

78%

Draw or Scotland U23 W

42%

Winning margin

Denmark U23 W wins by 2+

34%

Scotland U23 W wins by 2+

Team goals

Denmark U23 W 1+ goals

85%

Denmark U23 W 2+ goals

56%

Denmark U23 W 3+ goals

29%

Scotland U23 W 1+ goals

63%

Scotland U23 W 2+ goals

26%

Scotland U23 W 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Denmark U23 W (draw refunded)

74%

Scotland U23 W (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Denmark U23 W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Scotland U23 W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Denmark U23 W attack 2.00 + Scotland U23 W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Scotland U23 W attack 1.00 + Denmark U23 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Denmark U23 W scores more

58%

level

22%

Scotland U23 W scores more

20%

Denmark U23 W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Denmark U23 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

L. Borbye

15'

C. Floe

46'

J. Mathiasen← M. Skovsen

46'

M. Carstens← S. Baatrup

56'

K. McGovern

60'

E. Byrnak← C. Jepsen

60'

K. Linnebjerg← P. Sanvig

60'

M. Rasmussen← E. Fink

73'

C. Floe

80'

M. Hagemann← L. Borbye

Denmark

Scotland

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

46'▲J. Mathiasen←▼M. Skovsen

46'▲M. Carstens←▼S. Baatrup

60'▲E. Byrnak←▼C. Jepsen

60'▲K. Linnebjerg←▼P. Sanvig

60'▲M. Rasmussen←▼E. Fink

80'▲M. Hagemann←▼L. Borbye

Denmark U23 W substitutes

16Petersson2Mathiasen5Carstens6Byrnak8Hagemann9Linnebjerg15Rasmussen19Carstens20Walter

Scotland U23 W substitutes

1Clachers3Penman6McAllister7Austin13Cross14McGregor16McAneny19Boyes20Hutchinson