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Denmark U23 W vs Mexico U23 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Denmark U23 W
Denmark U23 W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mexico U23 W
Mexico U23 W
M. Wendicke 57'
A. Lomeli 45'
10/25/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Denmark U23 W49%
×Draw26%
Mexico U23 W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Denmark U23 W
1.50
Mexico U23 W
1.00

Denmark U23 W creates 50% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Denmark U23 W
2.00
Mexico U23 W
1.00

allows per match

Denmark U23 W
1.00
Mexico U23 W
1.00

finishing

Denmark U23 W+0.00on par
Mexico U23 W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denmark U23 W ↓

Mexico U23 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Denmark U23 W or draw
75%
Denmark U23 W or Mexico U23 W
74%
Draw or Mexico U23 W
51%

Winning margin

Denmark U23 W wins by 2+
25%
Mexico U23 W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Denmark U23 W 1+ goals
78%
Denmark U23 W 2+ goals
44%
Denmark U23 W 3+ goals
19%
Mexico U23 W 1+ goals
63%
Mexico U23 W 2+ goals
26%
Mexico U23 W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Denmark U23 W (draw refunded)
66%
Mexico U23 W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denmark U23 W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Mexico U23 W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denmark U23 W attack 2.00 + Mexico U23 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Mexico U23 W attack 1.00 + Denmark U23 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Denmark U23 W scores more
49%
level
26%
Mexico U23 W scores more
25%

Denmark U23 W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Denmark U23 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
A. Lomeli
57'
M. Wendicke

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Denmark U23 W 1–1 Mexico U23 W

Denmark U23 W and Mexico U23 W drew 1-1 in Friendlies Women on October 25, 2025.

Goals: A. Lomeli (45'), M. Wendicke (57').