Denmark U19 2–0 Portugal U19: Result & Stats

Denmark U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Portugal U19

E. Højlund 70'

T. Jørgensen 61'

3/26/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 5Estádio EFAPEL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Denmark U1957%

×Draw24%

Portugal U1919%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Denmark U19Expected goals in this matchPortugal U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.88

Denmark U19

1.73

Portugal U19

0.88

Denmark U19 creates 97% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 7 away

2.60

creates per match

0.86

0.90

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Denmark U19

2.60

Portugal U19

0.86

allows per match

Denmark U19

0.90

Portugal U19

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Denmark U19+0.00on par

Portugal U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denmark U19 ↓

Portugal U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Denmark U19 or draw

81%

Denmark U19 or Portugal U19

76%

Draw or Portugal U19

43%

Winning margin

Denmark U19 wins by 2+

32%

Portugal U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Denmark U19 1+ goals

82%

Denmark U19 2+ goals

52%

Denmark U19 3+ goals

25%

Portugal U19 1+ goals

59%

Portugal U19 2+ goals

22%

Portugal U19 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Denmark U19 (draw refunded)

75%

Portugal U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denmark U19 at home — creates 2.60, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

Portugal U19 away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denmark U19 attack 2.60 + Portugal U19 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.73

Portugal U19 attack 0.86 + Denmark U19 defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Denmark U19 scores more

57%

level

24%

Portugal U19 scores more

19%

Denmark U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Denmark U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

R. Ribeiro

32'

C. Bischoff

42'

Tomás Marques← João Conceição

61'

T. Jørgensen

64'

Gustavo Varela← João Rêgo

64'

Ivan Lima← Vivaldo Semedo

67'

70'

71'

72'

76'

C. Harder← E. Højlund

76'

V. Froholdt← A. Daghim

78'

D. Essugo

78'

Fábio Jaló← João Vasconcelos

78'

Rafael Luís← Manuel Mendonça

86'

F. Jalo

86'

M. Lauritsen

86'

O. Schwartau← C. Bischoff

89'

M. Monteiro

Denmark

Portugal

12

Fernandes

14

Monteiro

13

▼

18

3

5

19

▼

Vasconcel

20

▼

Rêgo

8

▼

Mendonça

7

Ribeiro

17

▼

16

3

4

13

15

20

6

10

⚽

Jørgensen

7

▼

Bischoff

19

⚽

▼

Højlund

11

▼

Daghim

Manager: M. Eskesen

76'▲C. Harder←▼E. Højlund

76'▲V. Froholdt←▼A. Daghim

86'▲O. Schwartau←▼C. Bischoff

Denmark U19 substitutes

9Harder12Froholdt17Schwartau1Dithmer14Simmelhack5Søe8Sertdemir

Manager: José Lima

42'▲Tomás Marques←▼João Conceição

64'▲Gustavo Varela←▼João Rêgo

64'▲Ivan Lima←▼Vivaldo Semedo

78'▲Fábio Jaló←▼João Vasconcelos

78'▲Rafael Luís←▼Manuel Mendonça

Portugal U19 substitutes

2Marques9Varela10Lima11Jaló6Luís1Silva4Muniz15Gomes16Djaló

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Denmark U19 2–0 Portugal U19

Denmark U19 beat Portugal U19 2-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 26, 2024.

Goals: T. Jørgensen (61'), E. Højlund (70').

The match was played at Estádio EFAPEL in Coimbra.

Denmark U19 vs Portugal U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Denmark U19 2–0 Portugal U19