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Denmark U19 vs Norway U19 — Friendlies 2026

Denmark U19
Denmark U19
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Norway U19
Norway U19
J. Emefile 48'
A. Jorgensen 39'
S. Olderheim 71'
H. Volden 53', 15'
9/7/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Denmark U1945%
×Draw22%
Norway U1933%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Denmark U19
1.90
Norway U19
1.60

Denmark U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Denmark U19
2.00
Norway U19
1.70

allows per match

Denmark U19
1.50
Norway U19
1.80

finishing

Denmark U19+0.00on par
Norway U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denmark U19 ↓

Norway U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Denmark U19 or draw
67%
Denmark U19 or Norway U19
78%
Draw or Norway U19
55%

Winning margin

Denmark U19 wins by 2+
25%
Norway U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Denmark U19 1+ goals
85%
Denmark U19 2+ goals
56%
Denmark U19 3+ goals
29%
Norway U19 1+ goals
80%
Norway U19 2+ goals
47%
Norway U19 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Denmark U19 (draw refunded)
58%
Norway U19 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denmark U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Norway U19 away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denmark U19 attack 2.00 + Norway U19 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Norway U19 attack 1.70 + Denmark U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Denmark U19 scores more
45%
level
22%
Norway U19 scores more
33%

Denmark U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Denmark U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
H. Volden
39'
A. Jorgensen
48'
J. Emefile
53'
H. Volden
71'
S. Olderheim
Denmark
Norway
Lasse Stensgaard Jørgensen
Manager: Lasse Stensgaard Jørgensen
Even Sel
Manager: Even Sel

Match Recap: Denmark U19 vs Norway U19

Norway U19 beat Denmark U19 3-2 in Friendlies on September 7, 2025.

Goals: H. Volden (15', 53'), A. Jorgensen (39'), J. Emefile (48'), S. Olderheim (71').