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Denmark U19 vs Italy U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Denmark U19
Denmark U19
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Italy U19
Italy U19
S. Stuker 120+6' (pen)
M. Abrahamsen 120+5' (pen)
W. Kirk 120+4' (pen)
H. Laerke 120+3' (pen)
P. Sondergaard 120+1' (pen)
J. Iddrissou 120+5' (pen)
S. Wiafe 120+4' (pen)
M. Marello 120+2' (pen)
F. Coletta 120+1' (pen)
7/8/2026UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · 5th PlacesNantporth Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Denmark U1937%
×Draw22%
Italy U1941%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Denmark U19
1.68
Italy U19
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 17 away

creates per match

Denmark U19
2.00
Italy U19
1.82

allows per match

Denmark U19
1.75
Italy U19
1.35

finishing

Denmark U19+0.00on par
Italy U19+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denmark U19 ↓

Italy U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Denmark U19 or draw
59%
Denmark U19 or Italy U19
78%
Draw or Italy U19
63%

Winning margin

Denmark U19 wins by 2+
18%
Italy U19 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Denmark U19 1+ goals
81%
Denmark U19 2+ goals
50%
Denmark U19 3+ goals
24%
Italy U19 1+ goals
83%
Italy U19 2+ goals
53%
Italy U19 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Denmark U19 (draw refunded)
47%
Italy U19 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denmark U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Italy U19 away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denmark U19 attack 2.00 + Italy U19 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.68

Italy U19 attack 1.82 + Denmark U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Denmark U19 scores more
37%
level
22%
Italy U19 scores more
41%

Italy U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Italy U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
M. Mosconi
28'
F. Verde
30'
A. Bollini
56'
J. Iddrissou← M. Mantini
59'
L. Legolas
65'
V. Bender
71'
W. Kirk← L. Legolas
71'
E. Monrad← F. Elkjaer
81'
F. Coletta← M. Liberali
88'
F. Nardin← N. Rizzo
91'
M. Abrahamsen← V. Moller
99'
S. Stuker← J. Lucena
103'
V. Gustafsen
104'
M. Bonde← V. Gustafsen
106'
D. Elimoghale← M. Mosconi
111'
G. Schjott← V. Bender
118'
E. Sala
120+1'
F. ColettaPenalty
120+1'
P. SondergaardPenalty
120+2'
M. MarelloPenalty
120+2'
A. GothlerMissed penalty
120+3'
A. NataliMissed penalty
120+3'
H. LaerkePenalty
120+4'
S. WiafePenalty
120+4'
W. KirkPenalty
120+5'
J. IddrissouPenalty
120+5'
M. AbrahamsenPenalty
120+6'
D. ElimoghaleMissed penalty
120+6'
S. StukerPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Denmark U19 0 – 0 Italy U19

Denmark U19 and Italy U19 drew 0-0 in UEFA U19 Championship on July 8, 2026.

Goals: F. Coletta (120+1' pen), P. Sondergaard (120+1' pen), M. Marello (120+2' pen), H. Laerke (120+3' pen), S. Wiafe (120+4' pen), W. Kirk (120+4' pen), J. Iddrissou (120+5' pen), M. Abrahamsen (120+5' pen), S. Stuker (120+6' pen).

The match was played at Nantporth Stadium in Bangor.