Denmark U19 3–2 Israel U19: Result & Stats

Denmark U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Israel U19

M. Krüger-Johnsen 61'

O. Schwartau 39' (pen)

M. Themsen 35'

I. Oli 86'

S. Abu Farkhi 47'

11/19/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 8Kompleksi Sportiv Dinamo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Denmark U1950%

×Draw23%

Israel U1928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Denmark U19Expected goals in this matchIsrael U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.34

Denmark U19

1.87

Israel U19

1.34

Denmark U19 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 14 away

2.60

creates per match

1.79

0.90

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Denmark U19

2.60

Israel U19

1.79

allows per match

Denmark U19

0.90

Israel U19

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Denmark U19+0.00on par

Israel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denmark U19 ↓

Israel U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Denmark U19 or draw

72%

Denmark U19 or Israel U19

77%

Draw or Israel U19

50%

Winning margin

Denmark U19 wins by 2+

28%

Israel U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Denmark U19 1+ goals

85%

Denmark U19 2+ goals

56%

Denmark U19 3+ goals

29%

Israel U19 1+ goals

74%

Israel U19 2+ goals

39%

Israel U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Denmark U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Israel U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denmark U19 at home — creates 2.60, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

Israel U19 away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denmark U19 attack 2.60 + Israel U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.87

Israel U19 attack 1.79 + Denmark U19 defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Denmark U19 scores more

50%

level

23%

Israel U19 scores more

28%

Denmark U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Denmark U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

J. Janssen

35'

M. Themsen

39'

O. SchwartauPenalty

46'

46'

47'

56'

61'

62'

A. Abu Much← D. Tishler

67'

J. Nielsen← J. Janssen

70'

J. Shibli← Y. Balay

76'

L. Hogsberg

82'

T. Lund Jensen← M. Krüger-Johnsen

86'

I. Oli

90+2'

M. Walker

90+3'

O. Højer← O. Schwartau

Denmark

Israel

1

Levi

5

▼

Lannes

2

Schwartz

3

▼

Tishler

4

Waheb

10

Hazan

8

⚽

Oli

15

Magor

16

▼

Ranon

19

▼

Balay

9

⚽

2

3

5

4

20

15

17

⚽

Themsen

7

▼

Janssen

9

⚽

▼

Krüger-Jo

11

⚽

▼

Schwartau

1

Nygaard

Manager: L. Stensgaard

67'▲J. Nielsen←▼J. Janssen

82'▲T. Lund Jensen←▼M. Krüger-Johnsen

90+3'▲O. Højer←▼O. Schwartau

Denmark U19 substitutes

6Nielsen10Jensen14Højer8Falk13Larsen19Kristensen16Buur12Bødker18Berthelsen

Manager: O. Haim

46'▲A. Banay←▼T. Lannes

46'▲K. Zoabi←▼Y. Ranon

62'▲A. Abu Much←▼D. Tishler

70'▲J. Shibli←▼Y. Balay

Israel U19 substitutes

14Banay11Zoabi20Much17Shibli18Cohen7Khalaili13Baruch12Peretz

Match Recap: Denmark U19 vs Israel U19

Denmark U19 beat Israel U19 3-2 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 19, 2024.

Goals: M. Themsen (35'), O. Schwartau (39' pen), S. Abu Farkhi (47'), M. Krüger-Johnsen (61'), I. Oli (86').

The match was played at Kompleksi Sportiv Dinamo 2 in Tirana.

Denmark U19 vs Israel U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Denmark U19 vs Israel U19