Denmark U19 1–0 Albania U19: Result & Stats

Denmark U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Albania U19

T. Lund Jensen 37'

11/16/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 6Elbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Denmark U1980%

×Draw13%

Albania U197%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Denmark U19Expected goals in this matchAlbania U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.70

0.65

Denmark U19

2.70

Albania U19

0.65

Denmark U19 creates 315% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 10 away

2.60

creates per match

0.40

0.90

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

Denmark U19

2.60

Albania U19

0.40

allows per match

Denmark U19

0.90

Albania U19

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Denmark U19+0.00on par

Albania U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denmark U19 ↓

Albania U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–18%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Denmark U19 or draw

93%

Denmark U19 or Albania U19

87%

Draw or Albania U19

20%

Winning margin

Denmark U19 wins by 2+

59%

Albania U19 wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Denmark U19 1+ goals

93%

Denmark U19 2+ goals

75%

Denmark U19 3+ goals

50%

Albania U19 1+ goals

48%

Albania U19 2+ goals

14%

Albania U19 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Denmark U19 (draw refunded)

92%

Albania U19 (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denmark U19 at home — creates 2.60, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

Albania U19 away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denmark U19 attack 2.60 + Albania U19 defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.70

Albania U19 attack 0.40 + Denmark U19 defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Denmark U19 scores more

80%

level

13%

Albania U19 scores more

7%

Denmark U19 at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Denmark U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

J. Jaku

37'

T. Lund Jensen

46'

H. Bidstrup← L. Falk

46'

M. Krüger-Johnsen← V. Berthelsen

46'

O. Schwartau← M. Themsen

46'

F. Sulejmani← K. Marinaj

46'

J. Nuredini← R. Hasani

58'

63'

68'

68'

75'

76'

79'

83'

84'

84'

88'

90+3'

Denmark

Albania

12

4

3

2

5

▼

Dama

14

Prendi

6

▼

Jaku

18

▼

Arifi

19

▼

Marinaj

7

▼

Hasani

10

Tosku

1

Nygaard

12

▼

5

13

20

10

⚽

Jensen

14

▼

Højer

6

Nielsen

17

▼

Themsen

18

▼

Berthelse

8

▼

Falk

Manager: L. Stensgaard

46'▲H. Bidstrup←▼L. Falk

46'▲M. Krüger-Johnsen←▼V. Berthelsen

46'▲O. Schwartau←▼M. Themsen

76'▲C. Olsson←▼O. Bødker

88'▲J. Janssen←▼O. Højer

Denmark U19 substitutes

2Bidstrup9Krüger-Johnsen11Schwartau3Olsson7Janssen4Callø19Kristensen15Juul-Sandberg16Buur

Manager: J. Ahmati

46'▲F. Sulejmani←▼K. Marinaj

46'▲J. Nuredini←▼R. Hasani

63'▲K. Kashari←▼J. Jaku

68'▲D. Vraniçi←▼E. Arifi

84'▲R. Marinaj←▼A. Dama

Albania U19 substitutes

9Sulejmani11Nuredini17Kashari8Vraniçi15Marinaj1Dervishaj13Bakiu16Belloj