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Denmark U17 vs Sweden U17 — UEFA U17 Championship 2022

Denmark U17
Denmark U17
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Sweden U17
Sweden U17
5/17/2022UEFA U17 ChampionshipUEFA U17 Championship · Group Stage - 2National Stadium Ramat Gan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Denmark U1743%
×Draw24%
Sweden U1733%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Denmark U17
1.69
Sweden U17
1.45

Denmark U17 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Denmark U17
1.71
Sweden U17
1.33

allows per match

Denmark U17
1.57
Sweden U17
1.67

finishing

Denmark U17+0.00on par
Sweden U17+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denmark U17 ↓

Sweden U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Denmark U17 or draw
67%
Denmark U17 or Sweden U17
76%
Draw or Sweden U17
57%

Winning margin

Denmark U17 wins by 2+
23%
Sweden U17 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Denmark U17 1+ goals
82%
Denmark U17 2+ goals
50%
Denmark U17 3+ goals
24%
Sweden U17 1+ goals
77%
Sweden U17 2+ goals
42%
Sweden U17 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Denmark U17 (draw refunded)
57%
Sweden U17 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denmark U17 at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Sweden U17 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denmark U17 attack 1.71 + Sweden U17 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Sweden U17 attack 1.33 + Denmark U17 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Denmark U17 scores more
43%
level
24%
Sweden U17 scores more
33%

Denmark U17 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Denmark U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U17 Championship: Denmark U17 1–2 Sweden U17

Sweden U17 beat Denmark U17 2-1 in UEFA U17 Championship on May 17, 2022.

The match was played at National Stadium Ramat Gan in Ramat Gan.