Denmark U17 3–2 Latvia U17: Result & Stats

Denmark U17

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Latvia U17

3/26/2022

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 3JYSK park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Denmark U1762%

×Draw18%

Latvia U1721%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Denmark U17Expected goals in this matchLatvia U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.77

1.58

Denmark U17

2.77

Latvia U17

1.58

Denmark U17 creates 75% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

3.47

creates per match

1.57

1.60

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Denmark U17

3.47

Latvia U17

1.57

allows per match

Denmark U17

1.60

Latvia U17

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Denmark U17+0.00on par

Latvia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denmark U17 ↓

Latvia U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Denmark U17 or draw

79%

Denmark U17 or Latvia U17

82%

Draw or Latvia U17

38%

Winning margin

Denmark U17 wins by 2+

42%

Latvia U17 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Denmark U17 1+ goals

94%

Denmark U17 2+ goals

76%

Denmark U17 3+ goals

51%

Latvia U17 1+ goals

79%

Latvia U17 2+ goals

47%

Latvia U17 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Denmark U17 (draw refunded)

75%

Latvia U17 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denmark U17 at home — creates 3.47, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Latvia U17 away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denmark U17 attack 3.47 + Latvia U17 defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.77

Latvia U17 attack 1.57 + Denmark U17 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Denmark U17 scores more

62%

level

18%

Latvia U17 scores more

21%

Denmark U17 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Denmark U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff