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Denmark U17 vs Belgium U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Denmark U17
Denmark U17
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Belgium U17
Belgium U17
11/1/2022UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 7Baza Sportivă Steaua 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Denmark U1750%
×Draw20%
Belgium U1730%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Denmark U17
2.29
Belgium U17
1.75

Denmark U17 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

creates per match

Denmark U17
3.47
Belgium U17
1.90

allows per match

Denmark U17
1.60
Belgium U17
1.10

finishing

Denmark U17+0.00on par
Belgium U17+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denmark U17 ↓

Belgium U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Denmark U17 or draw
70%
Denmark U17 or Belgium U17
80%
Draw or Belgium U17
50%

Winning margin

Denmark U17 wins by 2+
30%
Belgium U17 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Denmark U17 1+ goals
90%
Denmark U17 2+ goals
66%
Denmark U17 3+ goals
40%
Belgium U17 1+ goals
83%
Belgium U17 2+ goals
52%
Belgium U17 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Denmark U17 (draw refunded)
63%
Belgium U17 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denmark U17 at home — creates 3.47, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Belgium U17 away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denmark U17 attack 3.47 + Belgium U17 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 2.29

Belgium U17 attack 1.90 + Denmark U17 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Denmark U17 scores more
50%
level
20%
Belgium U17 scores more
30%

Denmark U17 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Denmark U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification: Denmark U17 2–3 Belgium U17

Belgium U17 beat Denmark U17 3-2 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on November 1, 2022.

The match was played at Baza Sportivă Steaua 5 in Bucureşti.