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Denizlispor vs Turgutluspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Denizlispor
Denizlispor
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Turgutluspor
Turgutluspor
11/24/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundDenizli Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Denizlispor45%
×Draw21%
Turgutluspor34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Denizlispor
2.16
Turgutluspor
1.85

Denizlispor creates 17% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Denizlispor
1.88
Turgutluspor
1.71

allows per match

Denizlispor
2.00
Turgutluspor
2.43

finishing

Denizlispor+0.00on par
Turgutluspor+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denizlispor ↓

Turgutluspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Denizlispor or draw
66%
Denizlispor or Turgutluspor
79%
Draw or Turgutluspor
55%

Winning margin

Denizlispor wins by 2+
26%
Turgutluspor wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Denizlispor 1+ goals
88%
Denizlispor 2+ goals
63%
Denizlispor 3+ goals
36%
Turgutluspor 1+ goals
84%
Turgutluspor 2+ goals
55%
Turgutluspor 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Denizlispor (draw refunded)
57%
Turgutluspor (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denizlispor at home — creates 1.88, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Turgutluspor away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denizlispor attack 1.88 + Turgutluspor defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.16

Turgutluspor attack 1.71 + Denizlispor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Denizlispor scores more
45%
level
21%
Turgutluspor scores more
34%

Denizlispor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Denizlispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Denizlispor vs Turgutluspor

Turgutluspor beat Denizlispor 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on November 24, 2020.

The match was played at Denizli Atatürk Stadyumu in Denizli.