Denizlispor 1–1 Şile Yıldızspor: Result & Stats

Denizlispor

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Şile Yıldızspor

10/27/2021

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundDenizli Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Denizlispor58%

×Draw20%

Şile Yıldızspor22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DenizlisporExpected goals in this matchŞile Yıldızspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.33

Denizlispor

2.27

Şile Yıldızspor

1.33

Denizlispor creates 71% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

1.88

creates per match

0.67

2.00

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Denizlispor

1.88

Şile Yıldızspor

0.67

allows per match

Denizlispor

2.00

Şile Yıldızspor

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Denizlispor+0.00on par

Şile Yıldızspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denizlispor ↓

Şile Yıldızspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Denizlispor or draw

78%

Denizlispor or Şile Yıldızspor

80%

Draw or Şile Yıldızspor

42%

Winning margin

Denizlispor wins by 2+

36%

Şile Yıldızspor wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Denizlispor 1+ goals

90%

Denizlispor 2+ goals

66%

Denizlispor 3+ goals

39%

Şile Yıldızspor 1+ goals

74%

Şile Yıldızspor 2+ goals

38%

Şile Yıldızspor 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Denizlispor (draw refunded)

73%

Şile Yıldızspor (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denizlispor at home — creates 1.88, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Şile Yıldızspor away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denizlispor attack 1.88 + Şile Yıldızspor defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.27

Şile Yıldızspor attack 0.67 + Denizlispor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Denizlispor scores more

58%

level

20%

Şile Yıldızspor scores more

22%

Denizlispor at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Denizlispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff