Denizlispor 2–1 Menemen FK: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Denizlispor

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Menemen FK

5/8/2022

1. Lig · Round 36Denizli Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Denizlispor46%

×Draw25%

Menemen FK28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DenizlisporExpected goals in this matchMenemen FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.15

Denizlispor

1.55

Menemen FK

1.15

Denizlispor creates 35% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 52 away

1.48

creates per match

1.06

1.23

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Denizlispor

1.48

Menemen FK

1.06

allows per match

Denizlispor

1.23

Menemen FK

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Denizlispor+0.00on par

Menemen FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denizlispor ↓

Menemen FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Denizlispor or draw

72%

Denizlispor or Menemen FK

75%

Draw or Menemen FK

54%

Winning margin

Denizlispor wins by 2+

24%

Menemen FK wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Denizlispor 1+ goals

79%

Denizlispor 2+ goals

46%

Denizlispor 3+ goals

20%

Menemen FK 1+ goals

68%

Menemen FK 2+ goals

32%

Menemen FK 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Denizlispor (draw refunded)

62%

Menemen FK (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denizlispor at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.23 · 52 matches

Menemen FK away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.62 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denizlispor attack 1.48 + Menemen FK defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.55

Menemen FK attack 1.06 + Denizlispor defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Denizlispor scores more

46%

level

25%

Menemen FK scores more

28%

Denizlispor at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Denizlispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff