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Denizlispor vs Erzurumspor FK — 1. Lig 2018

Denizlispor
Denizlispor
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK
5/20/20221. Lig1. Lig · Round 38Denizli Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Denizlispor38%
×Draw27%
Erzurumspor FK34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Denizlispor
1.27
Erzurumspor FK
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 110 away

creates per match

Denizlispor
1.48
Erzurumspor FK
1.16

allows per match

Denizlispor
1.23
Erzurumspor FK
1.06

finishing

Denizlispor+0.00on par
Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denizlispor ↓

Erzurumspor FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Denizlispor or draw
66%
Denizlispor or Erzurumspor FK
73%
Draw or Erzurumspor FK
62%

Winning margin

Denizlispor wins by 2+
17%
Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Denizlispor 1+ goals
72%
Denizlispor 2+ goals
36%
Denizlispor 3+ goals
14%
Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals
70%
Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals
33%
Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Denizlispor (draw refunded)
53%
Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denizlispor at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.23 · 52 matches

Erzurumspor FK away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.06 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denizlispor attack 1.48 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.27

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.16 + Denizlispor defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Denizlispor scores more
38%
level
27%
Erzurumspor FK scores more
34%

Denizlispor at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Denizlispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Denizlispor 4–0 Erzurumspor FK

Denizlispor beat Erzurumspor FK 4-0 in 1. Lig on May 20, 2022.

The match was played at Denizli Atatürk Stadyumu in Denizli.