Denizlispor 1–3 Bursaspor: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Denizlispor

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Bursaspor

12/5/2021

1. Lig · Round 15Denizli Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Denizlispor44%

×Draw24%

Bursaspor31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DenizlisporExpected goals in this matchBursaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.31

Denizlispor

1.61

Bursaspor

1.31

Denizlispor creates 23% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 53 away

1.48

creates per match

1.40

1.23

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Denizlispor

1.48

Bursaspor

1.40

allows per match

Denizlispor

1.23

Bursaspor

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Denizlispor+0.00on par

Bursaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denizlispor ↓

Bursaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Denizlispor or draw

69%

Denizlispor or Bursaspor

76%

Draw or Bursaspor

56%

Winning margin

Denizlispor wins by 2+

23%

Bursaspor wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Denizlispor 1+ goals

80%

Denizlispor 2+ goals

48%

Denizlispor 3+ goals

22%

Bursaspor 1+ goals

73%

Bursaspor 2+ goals

38%

Bursaspor 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Denizlispor (draw refunded)

59%

Bursaspor (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denizlispor at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.23 · 52 matches

Bursaspor away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.75 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denizlispor attack 1.48 + Bursaspor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.61

Bursaspor attack 1.40 + Denizlispor defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Denizlispor scores more

44%

level

24%

Bursaspor scores more

31%

Denizlispor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Denizlispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff