Denizlispor 2–3 Burhaniye Belediyespor

Denizlispor

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Burhaniye Belediyespor

10/11/2023

Türkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundDenizli Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Denizlispor36%

×Draw21%

Burhaniye Belediyespor43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DenizlisporExpected goals in this matchBurhaniye Belediyespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

2.00

Denizlispor

1.81

Burhaniye Belediyespor

2.00

Burhaniye Belediyespor creates 10% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

1.88

creates per match

2.00

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Denizlispor

1.88

Burhaniye Belediyespor

2.00

allows per match

Denizlispor

2.00

Burhaniye Belediyespor

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Denizlispor+0.00on par

Burhaniye Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denizlispor ↓

Burhaniye Belediyespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Denizlispor or draw

57%

Denizlispor or Burhaniye Belediyespor

79%

Draw or Burhaniye Belediyespor

64%

Winning margin

Denizlispor wins by 2+

18%

Burhaniye Belediyespor wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Denizlispor 1+ goals

84%

Denizlispor 2+ goals

54%

Denizlispor 3+ goals

27%

Burhaniye Belediyespor 1+ goals

86%

Burhaniye Belediyespor 2+ goals

59%

Burhaniye Belediyespor 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Denizlispor (draw refunded)

45%

Burhaniye Belediyespor (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denizlispor at home — creates 1.88, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Burhaniye Belediyespor away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denizlispor attack 1.88 + Burhaniye Belediyespor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.81

Burhaniye Belediyespor attack 2.00 + Denizlispor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Denizlispor scores more

36%

level

21%

Burhaniye Belediyespor scores more

43%

Burhaniye Belediyespor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Burhaniye Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff