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Denizlispor vs Bandırmaspor — 1. Lig 2018

Denizlispor
Denizlispor
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Bandırmaspor
Bandırmaspor
8/14/20211. Lig1. Lig · Round 1Denizli Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Denizlispor40%
×Draw26%
Bandırmaspor34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Denizlispor
1.40
Bandırmaspor
1.25

Denizlispor creates 12% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 110 away

creates per match

Denizlispor
1.48
Bandırmaspor
1.27

allows per match

Denizlispor
1.23
Bandırmaspor
1.31

finishing

Denizlispor+0.00on par
Bandırmaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denizlispor ↓

Bandırmaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Denizlispor or draw
66%
Denizlispor or Bandırmaspor
74%
Draw or Bandırmaspor
60%

Winning margin

Denizlispor wins by 2+
19%
Bandırmaspor wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Denizlispor 1+ goals
75%
Denizlispor 2+ goals
41%
Denizlispor 3+ goals
17%
Bandırmaspor 1+ goals
71%
Bandırmaspor 2+ goals
36%
Bandırmaspor 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Denizlispor (draw refunded)
55%
Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denizlispor at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.23 · 52 matches

Bandırmaspor away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.31 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denizlispor attack 1.48 + Bandırmaspor defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.40

Bandırmaspor attack 1.27 + Denizlispor defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Denizlispor scores more
40%
level
26%
Bandırmaspor scores more
34%

Denizlispor at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Denizlispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Denizlispor vs Bandırmaspor

Bandırmaspor beat Denizlispor 2-0 in 1. Lig on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Denizli Atatürk Stadyumu in Denizli.