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Denizlispor vs Ayvalikgucu — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Denizlispor
Denizlispor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ayvalikgucu
Ayvalikgucu
10/19/2022Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundDenizli Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Denizlispor35%
×Draw21%
Ayvalikgucu44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Denizlispor
1.94
Ayvalikgucu
2.17

Ayvalikgucu creates 12% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Denizlispor
1.88
Ayvalikgucu
2.33

allows per match

Denizlispor
2.00
Ayvalikgucu
2.00

finishing

Denizlispor+0.00on par
Ayvalikgucu+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denizlispor ↓

Ayvalikgucu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Denizlispor or draw
56%
Denizlispor or Ayvalikgucu
79%
Draw or Ayvalikgucu
65%

Winning margin

Denizlispor wins by 2+
19%
Ayvalikgucu wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Denizlispor 1+ goals
86%
Denizlispor 2+ goals
58%
Denizlispor 3+ goals
30%
Ayvalikgucu 1+ goals
89%
Ayvalikgucu 2+ goals
64%
Ayvalikgucu 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Denizlispor (draw refunded)
45%
Ayvalikgucu (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denizlispor at home — creates 1.88, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Ayvalikgucu away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denizlispor attack 1.88 + Ayvalikgucu defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Ayvalikgucu attack 2.33 + Denizlispor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Denizlispor scores more
35%
level
21%
Ayvalikgucu scores more
44%

Ayvalikgucu at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ayvalikgucu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Denizlispor vs Ayvalikgucu

Denizlispor beat Ayvalikgucu 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on October 19, 2022.

The match was played at Denizli Atatürk Stadyumu in Denizli.