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Denizlispor vs Altınordu — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Denizlispor
Denizlispor
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Altınordu
Altınordu
12/19/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundDenizli Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Denizlispor55%
×Draw19%
Altınordu26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Denizlispor
2.64
Altınordu
1.80

Denizlispor creates 47% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Denizlispor
1.88
Altınordu
1.60

allows per match

Denizlispor
2.00
Altınordu
3.40

finishing

Denizlispor+0.00on par
Altınordu+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denizlispor ↓

Altınordu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Denizlispor or draw
74%
Denizlispor or Altınordu
81%
Draw or Altınordu
45%

Winning margin

Denizlispor wins by 2+
36%
Altınordu wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Denizlispor 1+ goals
93%
Denizlispor 2+ goals
74%
Denizlispor 3+ goals
48%
Altınordu 1+ goals
83%
Altınordu 2+ goals
54%
Altınordu 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Denizlispor (draw refunded)
68%
Altınordu (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denizlispor at home — creates 1.88, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Altınordu away — creates 1.60, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denizlispor attack 1.88 + Altınordu defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.64

Altınordu attack 1.60 + Denizlispor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Denizlispor scores more
55%
level
19%
Altınordu scores more
26%

Denizlispor at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Denizlispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Denizlispor 2–2 Altınordu

Denizlispor and Altınordu drew 2-2 in Türkiye Kupası on December 19, 2019.

The match was played at Denizli Atatürk Stadyumu in Denizli.