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Denizlispor vs Altınordu — 1. Lig 2018

Denizlispor
Denizlispor
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Altınordu
Altınordu
2/10/20191. Lig1. Lig · Round 21Denizli Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Denizlispor44%
×Draw25%
Altınordu31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Denizlispor
1.50
Altınordu
1.21

Denizlispor creates 24% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 87 away

creates per match

Denizlispor
1.48
Altınordu
1.20

allows per match

Denizlispor
1.23
Altınordu
1.51

finishing

Denizlispor+0.00on par
Altınordu+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denizlispor ↓

Altınordu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Denizlispor or draw
69%
Denizlispor or Altınordu
75%
Draw or Altınordu
56%

Winning margin

Denizlispor wins by 2+
22%
Altınordu wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Denizlispor 1+ goals
78%
Denizlispor 2+ goals
44%
Denizlispor 3+ goals
19%
Altınordu 1+ goals
70%
Altınordu 2+ goals
34%
Altınordu 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Denizlispor (draw refunded)
59%
Altınordu (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denizlispor at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.23 · 52 matches

Altınordu away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.51 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denizlispor attack 1.48 + Altınordu defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.50

Altınordu attack 1.20 + Denizlispor defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Denizlispor scores more
44%
level
25%
Altınordu scores more
31%

Denizlispor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Denizlispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Denizlispor vs Altınordu

Denizlispor beat Altınordu 1-0 in 1. Lig on February 10, 2019.

The match was played at Denizli Atatürk Stadyumu in Denizli.