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Denguélé vs Sporting Gagnoa — Ligue 1 2019

Denguélé
Denguélé
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sporting Gagnoa
Sporting Gagnoa
11/19/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 11Parc des Sports de Treichville

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Denguélé35%
×Draw29%
Sporting Gagnoa35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Denguélé
1.09
Sporting Gagnoa
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 59 away

creates per match

Denguélé
1.11
Sporting Gagnoa
0.92

allows per match

Denguélé
1.27
Sporting Gagnoa
1.07

finishing

Denguélé+0.00on par
Sporting Gagnoa+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denguélé ↓

Sporting Gagnoa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Denguélé or draw
65%
Denguélé or Sporting Gagnoa
71%
Draw or Sporting Gagnoa
65%

Winning margin

Denguélé wins by 2+
14%
Sporting Gagnoa wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Denguélé 1+ goals
66%
Denguélé 2+ goals
30%
Denguélé 3+ goals
10%
Sporting Gagnoa 1+ goals
66%
Sporting Gagnoa 2+ goals
30%
Sporting Gagnoa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Denguélé (draw refunded)
50%
Sporting Gagnoa (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denguélé at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Sporting Gagnoa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denguélé attack 1.11 + Sporting Gagnoa defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.09

Sporting Gagnoa attack 0.92 + Denguélé defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Denguélé scores more
35%
level
29%
Sporting Gagnoa scores more
35%

Denguélé at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Denguélé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Denguélé 2–0 Sporting Gagnoa

Denguélé beat Sporting Gagnoa 2-0 in Ligue 1 on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Parc des Sports de Treichville in Abidjan.