Denguélé 2–1 Lys Sassandra: Result & Stats

Denguélé

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Lys Sassandra

11/12/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 9Parc des Sports de Treichville

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Denguélé36%

×Draw29%

Lys Sassandra35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DenguéléExpected goals in this matchLys Sassandra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.09

Denguélé

1.10

Lys Sassandra

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 59 away

1.11

creates per match

0.92

1.27

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Denguélé

1.11

Lys Sassandra

0.92

allows per match

Denguélé

1.27

Lys Sassandra

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Denguélé+0.00on par

Lys Sassandra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denguélé ↓

Lys Sassandra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Denguélé or draw

65%

Denguélé or Lys Sassandra

71%

Draw or Lys Sassandra

64%

Winning margin

Denguélé wins by 2+

14%

Lys Sassandra wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Denguélé 1+ goals

67%

Denguélé 2+ goals

30%

Denguélé 3+ goals

10%

Lys Sassandra 1+ goals

66%

Lys Sassandra 2+ goals

30%

Lys Sassandra 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Denguélé (draw refunded)

50%

Lys Sassandra (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denguélé at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Lys Sassandra away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.08 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denguélé attack 1.11 + Lys Sassandra defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Lys Sassandra attack 0.92 + Denguélé defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Denguélé scores more

36%

level

29%

Lys Sassandra scores more

35%

Denguélé at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Denguélé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff