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Denguélé vs ASEC Mimosas — Ligue 1 2019

Denguélé
Denguélé
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
ASEC Mimosas
ASEC Mimosas
5/3/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 28Stade Charles Konan Banny de Yamoussoukro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Denguélé25%
×Draw28%
ASEC Mimosas47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Denguélé
0.89
ASEC Mimosas
1.34

ASEC Mimosas creates 51% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 89 away

creates per match

Denguélé
1.11
ASEC Mimosas
1.42

allows per match

Denguélé
1.27
ASEC Mimosas
0.66

finishing

Denguélé+0.00on par
ASEC Mimosas+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denguélé ↓

ASEC Mimosas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Denguélé or draw
53%
Denguélé or ASEC Mimosas
72%
Draw or ASEC Mimosas
75%

Winning margin

Denguélé wins by 2+
8%
ASEC Mimosas wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Denguélé 1+ goals
59%
Denguélé 2+ goals
22%
Denguélé 3+ goals
6%
ASEC Mimosas 1+ goals
74%
ASEC Mimosas 2+ goals
39%
ASEC Mimosas 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Denguélé (draw refunded)
35%
ASEC Mimosas (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denguélé at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

ASEC Mimosas away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.66 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denguélé attack 1.11 + ASEC Mimosas defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.89

ASEC Mimosas attack 1.42 + Denguélé defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Denguélé scores more
25%
level
28%
ASEC Mimosas scores more
47%

ASEC Mimosas at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "ASEC Mimosas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Denguélé vs ASEC Mimosas

ASEC Mimosas beat Denguélé 4-2 in Ligue 1 on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Charles Konan Banny de Yamoussoukro in Yamoussoukro.