Dender 5–0 OH Leuven: Result & Stats

Dender

FT

5 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

OH Leuven

M. Berte 90'

N. Rôdes 28'

B. Nsimba 22'

B. Goncalves 18'

D. Hrnčár 6'

5/11/2025

Jupiler Pro League · Conference League Play-off Group - 8DENDER Football Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Dender41%

×Draw24%

OH Leuven34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DenderExpected goals in this matchOH Leuven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.41

Dender

1.57

OH Leuven

1.41

Dender creates 11% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 22 away

1.38

creates per match

1.14

1.68

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Dender

1.38

OH Leuven

1.14

allows per match

Dender

1.68

OH Leuven

1.76

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

Dender-0.27scores less

OH Leuven-0.28scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dender ↓

OH Leuven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Dender or draw

66%

Dender or OH Leuven

76%

Draw or OH Leuven

59%

Winning margin

Dender wins by 2+

21%

OH Leuven wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Dender 1+ goals

79%

Dender 2+ goals

46%

Dender 3+ goals

21%

OH Leuven 1+ goals

76%

OH Leuven 2+ goals

41%

OH Leuven 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Dender (draw refunded)

55%

OH Leuven (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dender at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.68 · 18 matches

OH Leuven away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.76 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dender attack 1.38 + OH Leuven defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.57

OH Leuven attack 1.14 + Dender defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dender scores more

41%

level

24%

OH Leuven scores more

34%

Dender at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dender will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

B. Goncalves

Dender · D

9.3

Match Events

6'

D. Hrnčár↳ B. Nsimba

18'

B. Goncalves

22'

B. Nsimba↳ N. Rôdes

28'

N. Rôdes↳ B. Goncalves

45+3'

Birger Verstraete

46'

C. Ikwuemesi← L. Zeefuik

46'

T. Verlinden← S. Mitrović

58'

D. Acquah← M. Viltard

59'

M. Berte← A. Scheidler

62'

H. Kuruçay← W. Balikwisha

62'

J. Mijatović← W. George

72'

L. Hens← R. Květ

76'

76'

87'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DenderOH

Overview

35%Possession65%

16Total Shots14

2.95Expected Goals (xG)2.03

3Corners5

10Fouls18

Shots

16Total Shots14

7On Target2

4Off Target8

5Blocked4

12Inside Box9

4Outside Box5

Passing

35%Possession65%

298Total Passes555

242Accurate Passes479

81%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

-1.08Goals Prevented-1.08

Discipline

10Fouls18

0Yellow Cards2