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Dender vs Cercle Brugge — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Dender
Dender
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
1/18/2025Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 22DENDER Football Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Dender35%
×Draw24%
Cercle Brugge41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dender
1.44
Cercle Brugge
1.58

Cercle Brugge creates 10% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 23 away

creates per match

Dender
1.34
Cercle Brugge
1.45

allows per match

Dender
1.71
Cercle Brugge
1.53

finishing

Dender-0.23scores less
Cercle Brugge-0.10scores less

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dender ↓

Cercle Brugge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dender or draw
59%
Dender or Cercle Brugge
76%
Draw or Cercle Brugge
65%

Winning margin

Dender wins by 2+
16%
Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Dender 1+ goals
76%
Dender 2+ goals
42%
Dender 3+ goals
18%
Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
79%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
47%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Dender (draw refunded)
46%
Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dender at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.71 · 19 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.53 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dender attack 1.34 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.44

Cercle Brugge attack 1.45 + Dender defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dender scores more
35%
level
24%
Cercle Brugge scores more
41%

Cercle Brugge at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jupiler Pro League: Dender 0–1 Cercle Brugge

Cercle Brugge beat Dender 1-0 in Jupiler Pro League on January 18, 2025.

The match was played at DENDER Football Complex in Denderleeuw.