Dender 0–0 Beerschot VA: Result & Stats

Dender

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Beerschot VA

2/22/2025

Jupiler Pro League · Round 27DENDER Football Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Dender47%

×Draw24%

Beerschot VA29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DenderExpected goals in this matchBeerschot VA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.27

Dender

1.67

Beerschot VA

1.27

Dender creates 31% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 54 away

1.05

creates per match

1.07

1.46

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Dender

1.05

Beerschot VA

1.07

allows per match

Dender

1.46

Beerschot VA

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dender+0.00on par

Beerschot VA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dender ↓

Beerschot VA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Dender or draw

71%

Dender or Beerschot VA

76%

Draw or Beerschot VA

53%

Winning margin

Dender wins by 2+

25%

Beerschot VA wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dender 1+ goals

81%

Dender 2+ goals

50%

Dender 3+ goals

23%

Beerschot VA 1+ goals

72%

Beerschot VA 2+ goals

36%

Beerschot VA 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dender (draw refunded)

62%

Beerschot VA (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dender at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

Beerschot VA away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.30 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dender attack 1.05 + Beerschot VA defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.67

Beerschot VA attack 1.07 + Dender defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dender scores more

47%

level

24%

Beerschot VA scores more

29%

Dender at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dender will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff