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Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo — Eerste Divisie 2018

Den Bosch
Den Bosch
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
VVV Venlo
VVV Venlo
L. Kromah 90'
12/12/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 20De Vliert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Den Bosch40%
×Draw22%
VVV Venlo38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Den Bosch
1.82
VVV Venlo
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Den Bosch
1.64
VVV Venlo
1.70

allows per match

Den Bosch
1.89
VVV Venlo
2.01

finishing

Den Bosch-0.14scores less
VVV Venlo-0.41scores less

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Den Bosch ↓

VVV Venlo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Den Bosch or draw
62%
Den Bosch or VVV Venlo
78%
Draw or VVV Venlo
60%

Winning margin

Den Bosch wins by 2+
21%
VVV Venlo wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Den Bosch 1+ goals
84%
Den Bosch 2+ goals
54%
Den Bosch 3+ goals
27%
VVV Venlo 1+ goals
83%
VVV Venlo 2+ goals
53%
VVV Venlo 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Den Bosch (draw refunded)
51%
VVV Venlo (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Den Bosch at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.89 · 6 matches

VVV Venlo away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.01 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Den Bosch attack 1.64 + VVV Venlo defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.82

VVV Venlo attack 1.70 + Den Bosch defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Den Bosch scores more
40%
level
22%
VVV Venlo scores more
38%

Den Bosch at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Den Bosch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
L. de BlokVVV VenloVVV Venlo · D
7.7

Match Events

50'
Thijs van Leeuwen
63'
L. Kromah← D. Zandbergen
73'
D. Verbeek← I. Boumassaoudi
76'
Z. el Bakkali← S. Barglan
77'
Zaid el Bakkali
79'
Michael Davis
81'
L. Verheij← M. Davis
81'
T. Janssen← L. Wehmeyer
86'
Kevin Felida
86'
Gabin Blancquart
88'
N. Foor← D. van Oorschot
88'
N. Matoug← N. Ait Mouhou
90+3'
Luc van Koeverden
90'
L. Kromah↳ N. Foor

Possession

57%Den

Shots

11Den

Pass accuracy

51%Den

Statistics

DenVVV
Overview
57%Possession43%
11Total Shots12
6Corners2
11Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots12
4On Target4
3Off Target5
4Blocked3
9Inside Box7
2Outside Box5
Passing
57%Possession43%
475Total Passes369
384Accurate Passes283
81%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls14
4Yellow Cards2
4Offsides2

Eerste Divisie: Den Bosch 0–1 VVV Venlo

VVV Venlo beat Den Bosch 1-0 in Eerste Divisie on December 12, 2025.

Goals: L. Kromah (90').

Den Bosch controlled possession (57%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at De Vliert.