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Den Bosch vs MVV — Eerste Divisie 2018

Den Bosch
Den Bosch
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
MVV
MVV
8/23/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 3Stadion De Vliert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

Den Bosch49%
×Draw23%
MVV28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Den Bosch
1.79
MVV
1.29

Den Bosch creates 39% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 148 away

creates per match

Den Bosch
1.67
MVV
1.07

allows per match

Den Bosch
1.50
MVV
1.92

finishing

Den Bosch+0.00on par
MVV+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Den Bosch ↓

MVV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Den Bosch or draw
72%
Den Bosch or MVV
77%
Draw or MVV
51%

Winning margin

Den Bosch wins by 2+
27%
MVV wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Den Bosch 1+ goals
83%
Den Bosch 2+ goals
53%
Den Bosch 3+ goals
26%
MVV 1+ goals
72%
MVV 2+ goals
37%
MVV 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Den Bosch (draw refunded)
64%
MVV (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Den Bosch at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 149 matches

MVV away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.92 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Den Bosch attack 1.67 + MVV defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.79

MVV attack 1.07 + Den Bosch defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Den Bosch scores more
49%
level
23%
MVV scores more
28%

Den Bosch at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Den Bosch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Den Bosch 1 – 1 MVV

Den Bosch and MVV drew 1-1 in Eerste Divisie on August 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion De Vliert in 's-Hertogenbosch.