Den Bosch 0–3 Dordrecht: Result & Stats

Den Bosch

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Dordrecht

S. ’t Zand 58', 45'

D. Mbayo 50'

3/29/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 32Stadion De Vliert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Den Bosch41%

×Draw23%

Dordrecht37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Den BoschExpected goals in this matchDordrecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.64

Den Bosch

1.74

Dordrecht

1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

1.53

creates per match

1.50

1.78

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Den Bosch

1.53

Dordrecht

1.50

allows per match

Den Bosch

1.78

Dordrecht

1.95

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

Den Bosch-0.03on par

Dordrecht-0.50scores less

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Den Bosch ↓

Dordrecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Den Bosch or draw

63%

Den Bosch or Dordrecht

77%

Draw or Dordrecht

59%

Winning margin

Den Bosch wins by 2+

21%

Dordrecht wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Den Bosch 1+ goals

82%

Den Bosch 2+ goals

52%

Den Bosch 3+ goals

25%

Dordrecht 1+ goals

81%

Dordrecht 2+ goals

49%

Dordrecht 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Den Bosch (draw refunded)

53%

Dordrecht (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Den Bosch at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.78 · 8 matches

Dordrecht away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.95 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Den Bosch attack 1.53 + Dordrecht defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.74

Dordrecht attack 1.50 + Den Bosch defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Den Bosch scores more

41%

level

23%

Dordrecht scores more

37%

Den Bosch at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Den Bosch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

S. ’t Zand

Dordrecht · M

8.6

Match Events

14'

K. Osundina← R. Kriwak

45'

50'

50'

58'

62'

I. Boumassaoudi← S. Ogbaidze

62'

V. van den Bogert← T. van Grunsven

62'

R. Mulders← D. Gyamfi

62'

D. Verbeek← S. Oulad MHand

62'

Elso Brito← J. Hilton

62'

B. Smolarczyk← A. Tsoungui

64'

Victor van den Bogert

73'

A. Segecic← I. Sebaoui

73'

I. Bronkhorst← M. Suray

73'

R. Shein← D. Mbayo

77'

R. van Hedel← J. Vicario

83'

Léo Seydoux

87'

M. Laros← K. Kostorz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DenDordrecht

Overview

45%Possession55%

9Total Shots14

5Corners9

12Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots14

0On Target9

7Off Target5

2Blocked0

4Inside Box7

5Outside Box7

Passing

45%Possession55%

307Total Passes383

226Accurate Passes294

74%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides2

Eerste Divisie: Den Bosch 0–3 Dordrecht

Dordrecht beat Den Bosch 3-0 in Eerste Divisie on March 29, 2024.

Goals: S. ’t Zand (45', 58'), D. Mbayo (50').

Dordrecht controlled possession (55%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadion De Vliert in 's-Hertogenbosch.

Den Bosch vs Dordrecht — Eerste Divisie 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eerste Divisie: Den Bosch 0–3 Dordrecht