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Dempo vs Sreenidi Deccan — I-League 2019

Dempo
Dempo
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Sreenidi Deccan
Sreenidi Deccan
2/25/2025I-LeagueI-League · Round 16Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium Goa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dempo39%
×Draw24%
Sreenidi Deccan37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dempo
1.57
Sreenidi Deccan
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 51 away

creates per match

Dempo
1.89
Sreenidi Deccan
1.59

allows per match

Dempo
1.50
Sreenidi Deccan
1.25

finishing

Dempo+0.00on par
Sreenidi Deccan+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dempo ↓

Sreenidi Deccan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dempo or draw
63%
Dempo or Sreenidi Deccan
76%
Draw or Sreenidi Deccan
61%

Winning margin

Dempo wins by 2+
19%
Sreenidi Deccan wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Dempo 1+ goals
79%
Dempo 2+ goals
46%
Dempo 3+ goals
21%
Sreenidi Deccan 1+ goals
79%
Sreenidi Deccan 2+ goals
45%
Sreenidi Deccan 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Dempo (draw refunded)
51%
Sreenidi Deccan (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dempo at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

Sreenidi Deccan away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dempo attack 1.89 + Sreenidi Deccan defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.57

Sreenidi Deccan attack 1.59 + Dempo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dempo scores more
39%
level
24%
Sreenidi Deccan scores more
37%

Dempo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dempo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dempo vs Sreenidi Deccan

Sreenidi Deccan beat Dempo 3-2 in I-League on February 25, 2025.

The match was played at Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium Goa in Margao.