Democrata SL 1–0 Varginha EC: Result & Stats

Democrata SL

FT

1 – 0

Varginha EC

4/30/2022

Mineiro - 2 · Round 2Arena do Jacaré

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Democrata SL50%

×Draw28%

Varginha EC22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Democrata SLExpected goals in this matchVarginha EC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.79

Democrata SL

1.36

Varginha EC

0.79

Democrata SL creates 72% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 26 away

1.27

creates per match

0.92

0.65

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Democrata SL

1.27

Varginha EC

0.92

allows per match

Democrata SL

0.65

Varginha EC

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Democrata SL+0.00on par

Varginha EC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Democrata SL ↓

Varginha EC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Democrata SL or draw

78%

Democrata SL or Varginha EC

72%

Draw or Varginha EC

50%

Winning margin

Democrata SL wins by 2+

24%

Varginha EC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Democrata SL 1+ goals

74%

Democrata SL 2+ goals

39%

Democrata SL 3+ goals

16%

Varginha EC 1+ goals

55%

Varginha EC 2+ goals

19%

Varginha EC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Democrata SL (draw refunded)

70%

Varginha EC (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Democrata SL at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.65 · 37 matches

Varginha EC away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Democrata SL attack 1.27 + Varginha EC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Varginha EC attack 0.92 + Democrata SL defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Democrata SL scores more

50%

level

28%

Varginha EC scores more

22%

Democrata SL at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Democrata SL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff